By Muhammad Arshad
Pakistan’s egg industry, which depends on seasonal weather patterns for production and consumption, is experiencing unprecedented disruption caused by prolonged dry spell that began in October 2024. The current change in weather shifts is deeply affecting the production cycle and the consumer market for eggs, leading to a noticeable economic repercussions.
The winter season in Pakistan is cutrently experiencing below-average rainfall, primarily due to the return of El Niño, climate phenomenon marked by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The egg market is experiencing a noteworthy decline, with prices dropping sharply as a result of changing weather patterns and fluctuations in consumer behaviour. The extended four-month dry spell, caused by unpredictable weather changes, is taking serious toll on the egg industry. This change has disturbed the usual seasonal demand cycles, leaving the egg traders and farmers in uncertain situation.
The sale and purchase of eggs is usually depends on cooler temperatures during the winter because it’s a traditional belief in Pakistan like other Asian nations that eggs are “hot” in nature, and people often consume them more during the colder months to help balance the body’s internal temperature but modern science does not support the idea. However, the traders are experiencing significantly financial losses due to the persistently high mercury levels after a dry spell, as many had stored cheaper eggs in anticipation of the cooler season.
Consumption of per capita egg in Pakistan is currently estimated to be between 55 to 60 eggs annually. This amount is considerably lower than the recommended intake of 250 to 300 eggs per year for optimal health as emphasized by the Pakistan poultry association. The low consumption rates highlight broader challenges in the poultry sector, such as rising winter temperatures, increasing production costs and economic factors that impact consumer purchasing power. However, the World Health Organization (WHO) does not provide a universal recommendation for per capita egg consumption.
The egg industry in Pakistan employs about 1.5 million people directly and indirectly across the country. However a population-based estimate suggests that about 52,500 people are likely involved in the egg industry in Rawalpindi and Islamabad. This includes employment across farming, distribution, retail, and related sectors.
The total economic contribution in egg industry only in Rawalpindi and Islamabad last year was approximately Rs. 7.84 billion on the base of estimated 3.5% share of Pakistan’s population and assuming the price of one egg is Rs. 20.
The increase in eggs’ demand is a remarkably driven by seasonal vendors who sells hot soup and broth, often made with eggs and chickens. However, many of these street stalls have begun to shut down, placing them in a challenging economic position and adding to inflation. The steep decline in egg sales has further exacerbating the price drop. Weather conditions have also had a ripple effect on the food service sector, where eggs are frequently used in soups and other winter delicacies.
Shifting weather patterns have altered the typical rhythm of consumption, leading to egg prices have dropped well below anticipated seasonal levels. The decreased demand has left sellers with excess stock that they are struggling to sell. This excessive supply combined with declining demand has resulted in a substantial price gap.
The growing gap between supply and demand is complex as consumer demand is shrinking due to seasonal impact of the dry spell. The situation not only influences the food habits of people but also their economic ability to purchase eggs in larger quantities. This discrepancy is leading to a problematic situation for farmers and traders as they are left with unsold eggs that are starting to spoil or lose their market value.
If the current weather conditions persist, egg prices could drop further, complicating producers’ efforts to recover their costs. Market analysts suggest that the ongoing dry conditions may lead to additional price declines in the upcoming days.
Due to economic challenges in addition, the average consumer may be less willing to purchase eggs even at the current prices, which exacerbates the demand problem.
To stabilize the egg industry, government intervention and strategic planning for future weather-related challenges are crucial. Implementing weather forecasts and early warning systems can enable producers to adjust their strategies in advance. By gaining insight into potential weather patterns and seasonal variations, egg producers and traders can enhance their preparedness for unfavourable conditions, minimize losses, and strategize for the future.
(The writer is a climate communication analyst based in Islamabad. He can be reached at: mediacares@gmail.com)
