By Syed Ali Nawaz Gillani
The tectonic shifts in global trade are not just a matter between Washington and Beijing—they ripple outward, shaking the foundations of economies across the Global South. Asia, Africa, Latin America—regions long navigating between growth and dependency—now find themselves watching as two economic titans clash, not just with tariffs, but with ideology, influence, and the future of global rules.
China, once dismissed as the “world’s factory,” has evolved into the anchor of many developing economies. Its Belt and Road Initiative has brought infrastructure where no one else would invest. Its markets have become critical destinations for commodities, textiles, and electronics from countries like Bangladesh, Vietnam, Kenya, and Peru. For many, China is no longer just a partner—it is the engine pulling them forward.
But trade wars don’t recognize nuance. Tariffs levied on China ripple outward. When supply chains falter, it’s not just factories in Guangzhou that go dark—it’s also the port in Colombo, the garment line in Dhaka, and the mining town in Zambia. The US might target China, but the collateral damage lands squarely on the developing world.
The disruption of global trade networks, built painstakingly over decades, threatens more than just profit margins. For developing countries, it endangers jobs, currency stability, foreign investment, and the fragile hope of industrialization. These economies have no cushion for shock—only the raw exposure of being at the mercy of global giants.
The US seems to be rewriting the rules it once enforced, not with diplomacy but with directives. Developing countries remember this playbook: it’s the same one used during structural adjustments, when “liberalization” meant dependency. But today, the Global South is more informed, more connected, and less willing to be pawns in great power games.
Asia, in particular, finds itself at a crossroads. The ASEAN bloc, India, Pakistan, Central Asia—all have diverse relationships with both China and the U.S. What they seek is not alignment with one or the other, but stability, access, and respect in a multipolar world.
The US-China rivalry is forcing choices that developing nations do not want to make. Do we invest in Huawei or fear sanctions? Do we export to China and risk offending Washington, or vice versa? The era of strategic ambiguity is narrowing, and with it, the room to maneuver.
China’s response has been one of outreach. Not just as a defensive measure, but as a strategic realignment—seeking economic alliances in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. From digital finance to green energy to logistics infrastructure, China is offering a parallel pathway—one that many developing nations are increasingly willing to walk.
But let’s not mistake opportunity for equality. The Global South must negotiate with clarity, ensuring that partnership does not become dependency, and that sovereignty is not bartered for soft loans. This requires unity, vision, and institutions that can withstand external pressure.
The crumbling of multilateral trust poses the greatest danger. If the rules of trade are no longer rules but tools of coercion, then developing countries are the first to suffer. From World Trade Organization sidelining to International Monetary Fund politicization, global institutions risk becoming weapons in a new Cold War.
Yet, perhaps in this moment of fracture lies the seed of reform.
In a world caught up in the turbulence of great power competition, it is tempting for smaller economies to take cover, wait for the storm to subside and join the stronger side. But history teaches us that passivity has never been the path to sovereignty. Today, as the economic confrontation between the United States and China shakes the foundations of world trade, a new question arises: what if Asia and the Global South didn’t just sit back and wait? What if they refused to be spectators in a game that affects their destiny and instead chose to become architects of a new order?
The current unraveling of the U.S.-led global trade architecture offers a chance to break from this dependency. The rise of China as a formidable economic force has already diversified the options for trade and investment. But why stop there? Instead of replacing one pole of power with another, what if the Global South reimagined a system where no single nation dominates, but where collective bargaining, cooperation, and self-reliance take precedence?
To gain “true teeth,” regional trade blocs must move beyond mere agreements and summits. They must build mechanisms for conflict resolution, tariff standardization, digital infrastructure sharing, and labor mobility. They must harmonize customs procedures, data regulations, and investment protections to attract internal investment and build trust among member states. And most importantly, they must see regional trade not just as an economic necessity, but as a strategic shield against external volatility.
Imagine if countries in Africa and Latin America jointly invested in green technology supply chains, reducing their reliance on European or American patents. Or if ASEAN and South Asian nations jointly created food security mechanisms and emergency reserves insulated from external shocks.
One of the most underestimated effects of the U.S.-China trade war is the erosion of global trust. Agreements can no longer be assumed to be binding. Commitments can be reversed by elections or populist waves. For countries in the Global South, this unpredictability has profound consequences. Aid gets frozen. Market access is revoked. Sanctions appear without warning.
But in this collapse of trust lies a hidden opportunity.
The time is ripe to imagine a different economic future—one where prosperity is not extracted from the periphery for the benefit of the center, but one where the periphery becomes a network, generating its own innovations, financing its own growth, and setting its own rules.
This model would not abandon globalization—it would redefine it. It would emphasize resilience over efficiency, inclusion over exploitation, and long-term partnerships over short-term gains.
Think of an economic belt stretching from Morocco to Malaysia, linked by renewable energy grids, AI-driven logistics, and mobile banking. Think of a trade model where goods are not just exported, but co-created, with intellectual property shared and adapted. Think of a global South that is no longer fragmented and dependent, but integrated and interdependent—on its own terms.
This century, contrary to the headlines, is not America’s to reclaim or China’s to inherit. It is the world’s to shape—and the Global South’s to lead. But leadership requires courage. It requires imagination. And it requires unity. If Asia and the developing world refuse to simply choose sides in someone else’s rivalry and instead choose to write new rules, then trade becomes more than just commerce—it becomes a platform for sovereignty, justice, and shared prosperity.
So the question is no longer, ‘Who will lead the world?’ but, What are we waiting for to step up and shape it ourselves?
(The writer is Peshawar based political and foreign affairs analyst, Secretary General of Pakistan China Friendship Association, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chapter. Can be reached by syeed.gilani@gmail.com
